I was going to do a writeup about the mathematical possibilities of Mike Huckabee winning the nomination after losing Virginia. But I found someone who wrote much better than I could have…the text below is from www.voteforhuckabee.blogspot.com
We all knew that McCain would take BLUE state Maryland, and BLUE D.C. There were some hopes for Huckabee to keep it close in Virgina, but in the end, the population make-up favored McCain. Virginia is a state with a HUGE military presence (both active and retired). Huckabee dominated the less populated Western part of the state, while we must remember that the Northern part containing the pentagon, is really just a suburb of D.C.
The pundits have been swimming like sharks waiting for something to finally nail the coffin shut on Huckabee. They will no doubt call this yet another end of the road for Huckabee. (Just like when he was dead after N Hampshire, dead after S Carolina, dead after Florida, and dead after Super Tuesday.)
No realist in the Huckabee camp expected anything but a “blow for blow” battle down the stretch. There is not going to be some magic sweep of states by Huckabee. McCain still has some wins up his sleeve. This Potomac Primary was prime territory for a McCain sweep, and he did just as expected, picking up most, if not all, of the 113 delegates available. There may even be one more McCain punch coming in Wisconsin (another Blue State that Romney would have taken) before we get back to Huckabee territory.
There is going to be a dry stretch between Wisconsin and Texas, where all you will hear about are these Huckabee losses over and over. The delegate count won’t change in that time frame, but with each passing day, McCain will get a little deeper into the minds of America as the Republican nominee and will continue to be reinforced as such by the media. It is up to us to keep the chatter alive and the energy high. The tide is trying to turn to McCain, our job is to hold it back until Texas.
So what does the Home Stretch look like?
Huckabee’s race really continues when he hits Texas on March 4th. A HUGE delegate state that Huckabee looks to not only win, but do so in a very convincing manner. He also looks to steal Ohio and Indiana, and could very well outright dominate in N Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Nebraska.
McCain will no doubt grab the last 2 Blue small delegate NE states of Vermont and Rhode Island (and Wisconsin as mentioned above). Questionable states that will most likely be close in final delegate count split, are the ones that Romney would have done well in: Washington (the actual primary), Pennsylvania, S Dakota, Oregon and Hawaii. Meaning, even if Huckabee “lost” all 5, the delegate split should be fairly even between the two candidates.
So that would mean Huckabee could take 7 more red states (some of them by double digits plus big ole TX), lose 3 blue states, and split 5 Romney states. That’s a recipe for a brokered convention!
Don’t fall for the media spin you will hear between now and Texas. You will only hear McCains delegate count about a million more times from tonight until March 4th. What they won’t tell you is that McCain is about to go through the Huckabee gauntlet of states!
In closing, I would like to tell all Huckabee supporters to realize that times like this are what make or break a team. If you’ve ever seen a favored team trying to break the spirit of the underdog, you know it’s all about the ability of the underdog to stay mentally in the game – no matter what the other guy does. The knockout punches keep coming, and our job is to get back up off the mat each time, with more vigor, more determination, and more enthusiasm than before.
If we stay resilient and focus on where Huckabee can win, and not sit around listening to the pundits, WE CAN TAKE THIS TO THE CONVENTION! This race is not over as much as McCain would love it to be. Despite his recent victories, the facts have not changed. The real red states will still go to Huck. Conservatives are still going to vote for Huckabee. McCain will continue to lose key states.
McCain has looked a touch better because people are starting to compare him to Hillary and Obama. My dog looks more conservative when compared to those two political misfits – but McCain and his stances have not changed. He is the same guy today as he was before he started this contest. His back turning to the republican party has not been forgotten. And if he makes it to the general election, the opposition will be RELENTLESS in pointing this out! (in fact they’ve already started) Huckabee must continue the fight to the convention. No only to save this party, but to have a chance in November to keep this country out of the hands of Hillary or Obama!
I must warn you now, this race is about to get ugly. The pressure to make Huck drop out will be intense. He will be accused of hurting the Republican party’s chance in November every day he stays in. The blows will be low, the spin will be dizzying. I urge you to stay strong!