Something I learned last year as I read through the Old Testament is that God likes to get credit. God would often send Israel into what appeared to be a hopeless situation. Thousands of soldiers vs Israels hundreds. Everything about the situation looked like Israel would be defeated. Basic math easily showed us how improbable it would be for Israel to win. But then God would defy the odds and provide victory. Why? So that He could get credit. The victory would be so amazing that no one person could take the credit for what happened. God likes to do this. And I believe he still does.
And knowing this quality about God makes me wonder if the same type of scenario is now playing out in the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee is now running against John McCain. The media is saying that John McCain has essentially won the nomination. And their claim is that the math makes it impossible for Mike Huckabee to win.
Actually basic math shows us that it is very improbable for Mike Huckabee to win the Republican nomination, but not impossible.
Here is a some basic math:
There are 963 delegates left.
McCain would need 471 of those to have 1191.
So if Mike Huckabee can get 493 of those this would leave McCain with a maximum of 1190 delegates, which is just short of winning the nomination for John McCain.
So what happens if John McCain nor Mike Huckabee have 1,1191 delegates after all of the states have voted? The nominee would be decided at the Republican convention. This would mean that Mitt Romney’s delegates would also be free to go to whichever candidate. It also means that the nomination would essentially be brokered. Politics would come into full play and at the end of the convention someone will have been chosen to be the Republican nominee. And this doesn’t mean that it would be the guy who has 1,190 delegates going into it. John McCain does not have the support of the base of the Republican Party and at the convention people will be looking at who can win in the general election. Part of this will be to look at who won the ‘conservative’ states. (That is the south.) And Mike Huckabee won in those states, so this fact alone will give Mike Huckabee an edge. The convention is also a long way out, it is in July. So an anti-McCain movement can certainly rise up to help Mike Huckabee win the nomination.
So, do I think the above scenario is what will play out? I honestly have no idea. What I do know is that I would certainly not be surprised to be surprised.